Bitcoin May Be Near Cycle Bottom, K33 Research Warns
More than half of Bitcoin's supply is underwater, a signal that has historically preceded major bottoms and strong 12-month returns.
Here's the stat that should have your attention: more than half of all circulating Bitcoin is currently held at a loss. That's not a rumor — that's the on-chain reality K33 Research is pointing to right now, and history says it matters a lot.
According to K33, every time this threshold has been crossed in past cycles, Bitcoin has found its bottom within weeks — not months, not years. Weeks. That's a tight window, and if the pattern holds, the pain trade may be closer to over than most bearish headlines suggest.
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What makes this signal compelling is what comes after the bottom. K33 notes that one-year returns following these capitulation moments have been strong across most previous cycles. Translation: the investors who buy when everyone else is underwater have historically been rewarded — and rewarded well.
Of course, past cycles don't guarantee future outcomes. Macro conditions, regulatory pressure, and liquidity environments differ every time. But when more than 50% of supply is in the red, it signals widespread capitulation — exactly the kind of sentiment washout that tends to mark generational entry points in risk assets.
If you're watching Bitcoin right now, this is the metric to track. Not the price headlines, not the Twitter noise — the percentage of supply held at a loss. K33 just told you what it means historically. The rest is your call. Continue reading at Cointelegraph.
