What are the expectations for the June CPI report?

Markets expect headline CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% last month. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY, a slight increase from prior readings.

Why is the New Zealand dollar falling if the RBNZ just raised rates?

The RBNZ raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% last week, which sparked a sharp rally in the kiwi. That rally left the currency vulnerable to profit-taking at the start of the new week, driving the NZDUSD down 0.89%.

What did Fed Governor Waller say about future rate hikes?

Waller said another firm core inflation reading would reinforce the case for keeping policy restrictive and could support another rate hike. He added it would take several months of softer inflation data before he would consider shifting to a more dovish stance.

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Dollar Climbs as Traders Brace for CPI and Warsh Testimony

Summarized from Forexlive Originally published 2026-07-14 Summary published 2026-07-15

The USD is gaining broad ground ahead of June CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony — two events that could reset rate expectations fast.

The dollar is on offense to kick off the North American session, pushing higher against every major currency. The New Zealand dollar is taking the worst hit, down 0.89% to 0.5799, giving back gains from last week's RBNZ rate hike. The Aussie and Canadian dollar are next in line, each sliding roughly a third of a percent. Safe-haven funding currencies — the euro and yen — are barely budging, down just 0.12% each. Classic defensive positioning.

Here's why you should care: June CPI drops today, and the numbers matter. Markets expect headline inflation to jump to 4.2% year-over-year from 3.8% last month. Core CPI is seen ticking up to 2.9% from 2.8%. Fed Governor Waller already put traders on notice Monday — another firm core reading keeps the door open to another rate hike, and he's not pivoting without several months of softer data. That's not a friendly backdrop for risk assets.

Then there's Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifying before Congress. His prepared remarks could drop the same moment CPI hits the tape. If Warsh echoes Waller's hawkish tone after a hot print, dollar bulls get a green light. If CPI surprises to the downside, you could see a sharp unwind of today's defensive trades. Either way, this is a market sitting on a coiled spring.

On the equity side, the Dow is getting torched by IBM, which cratered nearly 23% in premarket after missing badly on both earnings and revenue. Meanwhile, the big banks mostly beat — Goldman crushed estimates and is trading higher, while JPMorgan and Bank of America beat on every line but are still slipping in premarket. Go figure. The Nasdaq is catching a bid, showing the market isn't in full risk-off mode yet — just cautious.

Position light, watch the CPI print, and don't get caught leaning the wrong way into Warsh's remarks. Continue reading at Forexlive.

About this article

This is an AI-assisted editorial summary of reporting first published by Forexlive. All facts, quotes, and reporting are attributed to the original publisher; any errors of summarization are ours alone. Please visit the original source for the complete, authoritative version.

Original title: “The USD is lower to start the NA session and ahead of the CPI and Warsh testimony.”
Source: Forexlive
First published: 2026-07-14
Original URL: https://investinglive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-lower-to-start-the-na-session-and-ahead-of-the-cpi-and-warsh-testimony

Read the full article at Forexlive

Dollar Climbs as Traders Brace for CPI and Warsh Testimony

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