Markets Brush Off Trump's Ceasefire Remarks as Talks Continue
Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over, but markets focused on ongoing talks and shrugged off the initial sell-off.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the ceasefire with Iran is finished — full stop. Bold words. But markets took one look at the "talks are continuing" part of that same post and basically yawned. The kneejerk risk-off move faded fast, and traders moved on.
Here's why the reaction was so muted: the US isn't blockading the Strait of Hormuz. That's the nightmare scenario that would send oil spiking and global supply chains into chaos. Without that escalation, this reads as noise — more of the same posturing that markets have learned to discount.
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But don't get too comfortable. Every episode like this makes a durable peace deal harder to picture. Ships are already reluctant to pass through Hormuz, and that friction isn't going away. Structural tightness in the oil market is building quietly beneath the surface — and right now, WTI at $71.84 (down 26 cents on the day) isn't pricing that risk in at all.
If you're trading energy, that's your real signal here. The geopolitical premium has been stripped out of crude. Any genuine escalation — a blockade, a strike, a breakdown in talks — snaps that premium back in violently. Watch Hormuz, not Trump's Truth Social feed.
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