Oil Jumps 3.5% as Strait of Hormuz Stays Shut on US-Iran Clash
WTI crude surges to $73.90 as Hormuz traffic halts and US-Iran strikes continue with no talks in sight.
Oil is the trade right now. WTI crude is up 3.5% to $73.90 and it's not hard to see why — the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints, has gone dark. Ships aren't moving. The US and Iran are still exchanging strikes and there's zero diplomatic progress on the table. That's a supply shock story, plain and simple.
Iran is doubling down, reaffirming it won't honor any deal unless the US holds up its end first. Mediators are still trying, but the foreign ministry's tone isn't exactly optimistic. Until someone blinks, crude has a natural floor under it. Watch that $73-$74 range — if Hormuz stays closed another 48 hours, you could see a sharper leg higher.
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Risk assets are taking the hit you'd expect. S&P 500 futures are off 0.3% but Nasdaq futures are bleeding worse at down 0.9%. Tech is getting smacked hardest in pre-market. Gold, weirdly, isn't catching a safe-haven bid — it's actually down 1.4% to $4,063. Bitcoin dropped 2% to $62,863. The dollar briefly softened, letting EUR/USD recover from 1.1400 to hold around 1.1430, but don't read too much into that — risk appetite is still cautious.
On the rates front, Fed's Williams threw out a hawkish marker: he'll back rate hikes if monthly core inflation averages above 0.2%. That's the next big catalyst. US CPI is the week's marquee event, and with oil spiking, a hot print becomes more likely. That combination — geopolitical supply shock plus sticky inflation — is exactly the kind of setup that keeps the Fed stuck and equity bulls nervous.
European stocks managed to hold slightly positive on the day, but the real action this week belongs to crude, the CPI print, and whatever comes next out of the Middle East. Stay nimble. Continue reading at Forexlive.
