US CPI Report and Fed Speakers Set to Drive Markets Today
Core CPI M/M is the only number that matters today. A beat could push Fed's Waller to vote for a July rate hike.
Forget the European session — nothing's on the calendar and price action is likely to drift sideways until the US CPI data drops. The one wildcard is US-Iran headlines, which can move markets fast and without warning, so keep that in your back pocket.
When the American session kicks off, one number rules them all: Core CPI month-over-month, expected at 0.2%. That's it. Headline CPI, year-over-year figures — tune them out. Fed's Williams has already flagged that monthly core PCE running above 0.2% in the second half of the year would open the door to rate hikes. But Waller isn't waiting that long. He made it crystal clear yesterday that a beat on today's report alone would be enough for him to vote for a rate hike at the July meeting. And Waller has been one of the most reliable leading indicators on the Fed since 2021 — when he talks, you listen.
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Fed Chair Warsh also testifies before the House Financial Services Committee today, but don't expect fireworks. Warsh doesn't do forward guidance, and he's almost certain to stick to the script from the last FOMC press conference. This one's background noise for traders.
The central bank speaker lineup is packed: BoE Governor Bailey hits the tape twice, and you've got Barr, Goolsbee, Cook, and Bowman all weighing in throughout the afternoon. Bowman leans dovish and is a voter, so her tone post-CPI is worth watching if the data surprises to the upside. Goolsbee is hawkish but a non-voter, so his comments carry less weight on actual policy outcomes right now.
Bottom line: watch 0.2% on Core CPI M/M like a hawk. Above it, rate hike odds surge and risk assets could get hit hard. Below it, relief rally territory. Continue reading at Forexlive.
