US-Iran Tensions Reset Again as Oil Climbs 1% on Uncertainty
Trump signals Iran wants a deal even as new strikes fly. WTI crude ticks up 1% and the Strait of Hormuz stays locked.
We've been here before. Trump called the ceasefire "over," then turned around and said he doesn't think the war restarts — all while US forces launched fresh overnight strikes on Iran and Iran hit back at US bases in the Gulf. Classic reset. Same movie, different week.
Now Trump is saying "Iran wants to make a deal." That's the tell. Every time this conflict escalates past a point he can manage, the script flips and the other side suddenly becomes the desperate one. It happened once already when both parties quietly signed a memorandum of understanding. That deal didn't hold, and here we are again at square one.
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The Strait of Hormuz is still the real trade. Yes, there's been a slight uptick in ship traffic through the waterway in recent weeks — but nothing that screams normal. Maritime insurers aren't budging on premiums, and commercial vessels have zero reason to feel safe making that run right now. Iran isn't exactly waving anyone through either.
WTI crude climbed 1% to $74.30 today, snapping what had been four straight weeks of price declines. If negotiations stay dead and the strait stays choked, this week's move could be the launchpad for a more sustained summer rally in oil. Watch the Hormuz headlines — that's your real signal, not Trump's Twitter diplomacy.
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