USD/CAD Stuck in a Tug-of-War Below Key Moving Average
USD/CAD keeps getting rejected at the 100-hour MA but sellers can't push through support either. Classic range battle.
USD/CAD is going nowhere fast, and that's actually telling you something. Every time buyers try to rally, they run straight into the 100-hour moving average sitting at 1.41685. That level has swatted the pair down three sessions in a row now — Wednesday, Thursday, and again today. When a moving average rejects price that many times, you treat it as a wall until proven otherwise.
Here's the frustrating part for bears: they broke below a key support zone — the 1.41297–1.41386 area — that had been holding since mid-June. That's the kind of clean technical break you build short positions around. Price even stretched down to 1.41166 on Friday. But sellers couldn't hold it. Buyers came back in hard and erased the move.
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Today was a replay of Friday's script. The pair dipped to 1.41260, briefly punched back below that swing zone, and then bounced again. If you're short, you're watching buyers defend the lower boundary of this range with real conviction. That's not what you want to see when you're waiting for a breakdown.
So what's the trade? Watch 1.41488 first. If price reclaims and holds above that level, the focus shifts right back up to the 100-hour MA at 1.41685. Bulls need a clean break above that moving average to flip the short-term bias and take control. Until one side makes a decisive move, this pair is a choppy range — respect the boundaries, don't chase the fades.
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